The presidential campaign has taken up most of the political spotlight in the past few months, but the battle to control the Senate is perhaps just as significant. It will determine whether the next president can stock the judiciary with his picks and push his legislative agenda or whether he will have to contend with an obstructionist majority.
Republicans now control the chamber 53-47. To win back the Senate, Democrats need to hold onto all of their seats and flip four more—three if they win the presidential election and can rely on the vice president’s vote in case of a tie. Of the 35 seats on the ballot, Republicans hold 23.
Here are the top races to watch that will likely determine control of the Senate in November.
Colorado: First-term Republican Sen. Cory Gardner ousted Democrat Mark Udall in a 2-point victory in 2014. Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016. Gardner faces a formidable opponent in former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who initially ran for the Democratic nomination for president but has since shifted his focus to unseating Gardner. Gardner has focused more on local issues than on President Donald Trump during his campaign. When he does talk about the president, he tends to linger on how he worked with the administration to deliver things that would benefit his constituency.
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins easily won reelection in 2014 despite being a Republican in a state that has voted for the Democrat in every presidential contest since 1992. She had a solid reputation as a moderate, but then she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court despite stiff Democratic opposition. She also voted against convicting Trump in his impeachment trial. In 2018, Democrats won the governor’s mansion and both of the state’s U.S. House seats, making the electoral environment in Maine unfriendly for Collins this time around.
Arizona: After then–U.S. Rep. Martha McSally lost the U.S. Senate election to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in 2018, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the late Sen. John McCain’s seat. Now in a special election to determine who will hold the seat until 2022, which would have been the end of McCain’s term, McSally must face Democrat Mark Kelly. He is a former Navy pilot and astronaut and the husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, a well-known known mass shooting survivor and proponent of gun control. As far as challengers go, Kelly represents the best kind of candidate the left could hope for, according to Michael McKoy, assistant professor at Wheaton College: “Democrats are united behind him … he’s got a lot of wind at his back.”
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis defeated incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in 2014 in what was, at the time, the most expensive U.S. Senate race ever. Now Democrats want to win back control of the seat in the swing state, which Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 4 points. Tillis is running on a message of support for the president and opposition to Democrats who tried to impeach him. He will go up against army veteran and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham in what McKoy called “the toughest reach for Democrats.”
WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump on Friday announced he had chosen U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., as his new chief of staff. Meadows, who already announced his intent to retire from Congress at the end of the year, will leave his post early to replace acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.